Officine Panerai

Tim_M
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The future direction depends on goals

Hi Nicolas,

To return to the original query, I do believe that history and detail matter more than size alone to core Panerai buyers and the soul of the brand.

The question of future prospects requires context; what are the brand's long-term goals?  Do they want to consolidate and hold steady at their already phenomenal 75K+ annual volume? Do they wish to go upmarket and hold or reduce volume as price and target buyer move upscale? Or do they wish to double their volumes again over the next five years?

The problem of future identity is tied to the fact that every Richemont company seems intent on unlimited sales growth. This is not a bad goal per se, but it becomes a problem when brand identity and imagination aren't firmly institutionalized first. Patek and Rolex grow, but they never risk overproduction, they do a good job of maintaining brand equity, and they have a broader past and present product portfolio to drive the growth. Plus, their growth has been gradual over decades, expressed in small percentage gains, not orders of magnitude in one decade as with Panerai.

Frame of reference matters. Rolex made over 600,000 watches per year in 2000, and they build close to 1,000,000 per year now, but that kind of growth makes sense in percentage terms. JLC went from about 40,000 to 65-70,000 in the same period. Panerai probably tripled, at the very least. That's Kudzu-like growth, not sustainable in the long term and dangerous to brand image.

Panerai went from a few hundred pieces per year in the early 90s to tens of thousands in the 2000s to the point where six figures seems like the short-term goal. If the company were to decide that very simple dials, legibility, and two basic cases are its DNA, then steady and occasionally stagnant growth would be a realistic goal. There's no shame in staying true to your roots and knowing your market. But it's a challenge to take a 20,000-unit portfolio concept to a 100,000-unit concept. At some point, duplication and dilution become problems if innovation lags.

At the rate it's going, Panerai's production seems to be running ahead of its ability to innovate (rather than simply issue what amount to tributes to watches built 10-15 years ago). I feel that this trend, rather than the loss of the size advantage, is what is taking the energy out of many collectors' enthusiasm for the brand.

Best,

Tim
This message has been edited by Tim_M on 2014-10-28 04:14:45 This message has been edited by Tim_M on 2014-10-28 04:16:50

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